Contributors: Elina Hiltunen ( Finland), José Cordeiro ( Venezuela),
Eleonora Masini (Italy), Louis Tuvée (France), Mohan Tikku (India),
Bengt-Arne Vedin (Sweden), Sungjoo K. Ogino (Japan)
What will your lifestyle and value system be in 2025? What
culture-based hidden assumptions limit your thinking and your notion of
personal identity? What can you learn from other peoples and cultures
that can help humankind meet the challenges of the future? And what is
the future of cultural diversity itself?
To gain insight on these issues, FUTUREtakes formed our first-ever Transnational Roundtable of experts from around the world.
1. Which lifestyles and cultural values will survive in 2025, and which ones will be marginalized or extinct?
Elina:
In the future, the lifestyles and attitudes will be more fragmented,
meaning that at the same time there will be all kinds of attitudes and
lifestyles co-existing. One consideration is that via the Internet and
other tools that facilitate globalization, these attitudes and
lifestyles have increased visibility and opportunities to spread,
possibly with increased unification across the world.
Some lifestyle possibilities that come to mind:
- Increased respect for the environment (out of necessity)
- Decreasing family centrism; increased individual centrism and social networking with peers
- More “mix and match” values and cultures, something from there, another thing from somewhere else, etc.
- Increased individual transparency (fewer “skeletons in the closet”)
José:
Strong family ties and close personal relationships will continue during the next two decades.
“Siesta”
time will disappear completely during workdays. It will just become a
curiosity in history books, a relic for vacation days.
Louis:
In the absence of a true systemic crisis, I do not see present
life-styles disappearing and noticeable changes in values occurring.
Certainly people concerned by a specific life-style will change, and
the expression of values can mutate from one field to the
other as from consumption to election, social trends to political
decisions, or behaviours to laws.
However,
extremisms and extremists are facing extinction. Examples include the
Right /Left Political arena, workaholics, and sex addiction. This is a
result of two trends: consciousness of the limit of the “off-limits”
and tolerance for difference. Behind the sometimes partisan and
individualist daily struggle for life, the majority is looking for an
“appeased” society.
If we refer to the FUTUREtakes
cultural descriptors, my first reaction is to propose substitution of
“and” for “or,” as things are not black or white and lifestyles are
more a grey monochrome according to context and personal resources. The
search is for balance, to reach a form – even temporary – of symbiosis.
For example, a major challenge will be to preserve a simple life in a
complex society. Diversity of values will still exist, translating into
lifestyles at individual level, a mosaic for society, and an
archipelago in geopolitics. In addition, there is a definitive trend to
balance work, family, and leisure as well as a quest for non-material
and inner happiness.
Mohan:
While seeking to look at the world of 2025, we must bear in mind a
couple of fault lines that hide beneath the surface. Even while looking
at the big picture, we should keep observing the behaviour of smaller
segments. We cannot but bear in mind that it may not be enough to
predict the future for the whole of humanity as a disaggregated lump.
We must consider the scenario in three broad segments.
-
According to present indications, there will be a whole lot of
countries that will be the principal beneficiaries of the process of
globalisation. They will be in the vanguard of technological (and
therefore) cultural change, that is, technology induced cultural
change.
-
A sizeable segment of the global population still remains untouched by
the benefits and other spinoffs of the globalisation process (despite
all the talk about the United Nations Millennium Development Goals).
They will simply be left behind – too far behind for any meaningful
catching up to occur.
-
Then there will peoples, nations, or population segments within the
same nation or continent who will be striving to catch up with what
goes on in the developed part of the world. Some of them at least will
evince the dynamism to catch up with the developed countries, and even
leave them behind.
We must therefore accept that there won’t be one but several worlds
within the one world we know. So, our tendency to universalise our
conclusions must remain a guarded one – since the future or futures of
the three broad segments will not be identical. They will be operating
at different planes, sometimes in cooperation with one another; at
other times, in mutual conflict. It is against the backdrop of these
realities that one may visualise the world of 2025.
It will be difficult to pinpoint a particular cultural value or
practice that will survive something like the humans have, or disappear
like the dinosaurs did. More important, many of the cultural values
will survive but with altered meanings and significance. For example,
the progress in the direction of a networked global community will be a
major factor. It will be easier for people to connect across nations
and continents. But, at the same time, inter-personal communication
will be more superficial. It may be easier to know the world or to know
what happens around the world and react to it, but it will be harder to
know your neighbour. This will impact a wide range of cultural concepts
and practices. People will be feeling more insular in spite of the ease
with which they can connect across continents.
Bengt-Arne:
One
definition of culture (e.g., in Malinowski’s work) would be linked to
notions such as beliefs, customs, institutions, religion, ritual,
ceremonies, and taboos. Taking instead a leaf from Geert Hofstede’s
seminal studies of corporate culture, there would be power distance;
individualism vs. collectivism; masculinity vs. femininity; uncertainty
acceptance; and, a latecomer added after studies in East Asia and not
just in the West, long-term vs. short-term orientation.
The FUTUREtakes
list of cultural descriptors offers something like 27 different pairs
of opposites, so, if independent, they would make for a 27-dimensional
space. Lifestyles clearly constitute (timely) expressions of culture.
However, there are other descriptor frameworks, too.
Arnold
Mitchell of SRI International pioneered the VALS TM system (values,
attitudes, lifestyles) to describe the evolution of lifestyles (he had
a corresponding notion of life ways: branching points where traumatic
incidents made for decisive bifurcations in a person’s or a group’s
life). VALS was initially essentially a 2x2 matrix, but has now evolved
to motivation on one axis, ideals vs. achievement vs. self-expression,
and resources, low or high, on the other. Innovators are seen as
integrating the various motivations (and they are resource-rich), while
survivors just fight to survive, thus generating a scheme of eight
different groups.
Since a
paper or a screen is two-dimensional, there is a strong tendency to map
the world in 2x2 matrices. Another student of value change who offers
intriguing examples of this is Bernard Cathelat in France. On the other
hand, at one stage the Prizm segmentation system for the demographics
and lifestyles in the US featured no fewer than forty different
categories.
My suggestion
would be that the concept, and the reality, of culture be
deconstructed, but not in some fancy neo-modernist enthusiasm but
rather to have it reconstructed and then in a balanced logically
coherent multidimensional space. Why so? Can it be done? Because I
believe that we are in for more of cultural change and cultural clashes
than previously, basically because of new means for much faster
communication.
Sungjoo:
A
belief has long been shared in East Asia that human
lives should be HAPPY (very simple!). And there is a famous expression
very much loved by Japanese people, “Our happiness or unhappiness in
this world starts at the moment when we meet other people. Have a
nice encounter!” (written by Mitsuo, a Japanese poet). As we
know, the lifestyle that makes people happy through giving them
more opportunities to relate to one another, such as the
Asian one, will survive. It is true that in the 19th and 20th
centuries, the peoples of the world had sought to learn and
follow the competitive and sometimes even aggressive behavior
against their neighbors to gain physical and material happiness.
However, in the coming century, we increasingly get to
seek the harmony among people; we had very
well been taught the past that was scarred with people’s sorrow.
2. What culture-based hidden assumptions tend to limit futurist thinking and/or notions of identity?
Elina:
The role of man and woman in the family (woman as caretaker, man as
provider) is still seen as it has been before. These attitudes and
social acceptance of nontraditional roles (working mom, housekeeper
dad) take time to change.
Many still see the purpose of business as making money for shareholders, but more people are questioning this.
José:
Very local- and individual-based thinking tends to limit very forward-looking ideas.
Extreme emphasis on the past hinders futuristic visions and long-term dreams.
Sungjoo:
The
idea of “country,” and expressions such as “developing
country” and “developed country,” will be marginalized. In the
future, societies with good development in science, technology, and the
human mind will be connected each other in the unity of “individual”
enjoying the other diverse characteristics. This will supersede
the notions of “developing people” or “developed people” regardless of
nations or races.
Government-administered
education has brainwashed and limited an individual’s
consciousness for so long. Much hatred and hostility has been
taught in the name of patriotism. I expect many kinds of
education by various people who teach respect and gratitude toward
other individuals. The future depends on each individual’s own
exertions to merge into the universe, the world.
Mohan:
The idea of identity as we understand it will be at a discount. But
that does not mean the concept of identity will be passé. People will
fabricate new identities and different ideas of identity.
Louis:
Culture-based hidden assumptionshave pervasive impact from business to
the military, geopolitics and terrorism. For a time we thought that
globalization and communications would lead to more uniformity, shared
values, and even standardisation, but we discovered that the so called
global village was inhabited by very strange tribes speaking, thinking,
valuing so differently from us that we start to speak of Civilisation
Choc (Huntington) and develop the “Fear of Barbarians” (Tzvetan
Todorov).
9/11 and its consequences increased the trauma, and we discovered that tofight – as to collaborate
– we need to transcend ethnocentrism and first improve our knowledge
to, in a second step, better understand “those guys” and their “funny”
cultures.
From the
futurist viewpoint, the main dangerous hidden assumption is precisely
the very notion of “future”! At the national level and still more at
the individual level, the future will be linked to the past. For us and
our foreigners, the future is linked with what we or our ancestors
lived, human or natural events we suffered, and trust we have in self,
others or God (s) to change for the better. The same is true of
hindsight – useful in future studies – but reference to the past can
introduce hidden assumptions. The future will also be inferred from
supreme goals: the big V values and also the way we choose to reach
them is present in experience built cultural hidden routines.
3. What wisdom from your part of the world would be helpful in meeting the challenges of the future?
José:
Friendliness and happiness, which are very representative of Latin
America, will become more important in an increasingly globalized
world. More tolerance will also be fundamental in the future.
Mohan:
Mahatma Gandhi said, “The earth has enough for everyone’s need; but not
enough for everyone’s greed.” If peoples (read, governments) of the
world were to accept and internalise the truth of that statement, it
could become the mantra for a new global philosophy. It could show us
the way to meet a whole range of challenges from climate change to
world poverty without incurring unacceptable costs.
Eleonora:
I will consider Europe as a whole.
One
kind of wisdom useful for meeting future challenges is the one that
comes from the experience of the European Union within Europe as a
whole, in relation to its members that are very different. The members
are not only states coming together and trying to work out economic,
political, social, and environmental futures (although these are
important issues); they are a cluster of different cultures. The
cultural issues are not sufficiently taken into account, especially
their future developments. The many projects of the Commission on
Future Indications are developed through many projects in different
countries as members of the Union. These projects are in various areas,
from science and technology developments to the related social and
ethical issues, and are quite impressive even if, sometimes, they
cannot be described as future oriented in themselves. Nevertheless,
there is growing awareness of future-related issues at the European
level, even if it rarely manifests in political choices in the various
countries.
At the same
time, many individual countries have good experiences in thinking and
choosing in regard to the future within a European and world context.
One such country is Finland, which addresses future related issues at
the policy making level, and its Parliament has a Committee for the
Future. Sweden and Norway, as well as the Netherlands and United
Kingdom, also have good experiences in future perspectives, but it
manifests differently according to different political situations.
France of course has much to teach in conceptual terms and in education
towards the future.
The
other crucial wisdom is that of living and experiencing issues related
to migration within the various countries and across the countries.
Europe and its various countries, as well as their citizens, are very
much aware that in the future, immigration and migration in general to
Europe and within Europe’s countries is bound to grow, as differences
exist within Europe itself as a whole. There is also a great awareness
that immigration from Africa and all of Asia, including China, will
grow. With this immigration will come Chinese enterprises, perhaps
becoming more established in Italy as they have in France.
Louis:
Nobody has to give lessons but local examples can increase global creativity. I think that for France we may retain:
Our social system
The need to mix economy with solidarity, experience for us, is becoming
a top new objective not only for developed nations. Even if realization
of devoted programs is difficult to implement, we fight to maintain
them in spite of present crises which, at the same time, increase
people needs and decrease state resources. Increased length of life and
deep mutations in the economy and in industry add structural issues to
(we hope temporary) financial chaos.
Our fundamental principle of secularity
Separation of State and Religion cost us in history, but we are
attached to what is a fundamental principle of our Republic.
Theocracies show their danger and we think that faith must stay in
private life. Secularity is not against religions but is a respect of
differences and peaceful ways of living together.
Our European journey
To
overcome problems and difficulties, Europeans had to come a long way.
The new relations with Germany, a historical enemy of France, laid the
foundations and still constitute the strongest cornerstone of
contemporary Europe.
Not
only a money but also a symbol, the Euro was difficult to only imagine
few decades ago. Today, the voice of Europe can be heard in the world
under the noise of internal disputes.
I
will add that for France the new real concern for ecology, with
implications both to individual people and to government action.
Elina:
Being a good leader does not depend on one’s gender, skin color, religion, etc.
The importance of being honest, doing what one says that he/she will do, and standing behind one’s words.
Helping the people who need help. Specifically, taxes are good way to
help poor people (the welfare state). Everyone should have access to
healthcare, housing, and education and should be able to meet his/her
basic needs.
Sungjoo:
“People
themselves around you are gods.” In our part of the world, we know well
that we can not live without others’ understanding and help – as
illustrated by a Chinese character that means ‘human.’ We have met
many people among neighbors as good as gods who help us to
survive and to be happy. These gods near us will keep helping to
address the next challenges.
|
4.
What is the future of cultural diversity itself? Will cultural
plurality be maintained, or is a monolithic “one-size-fits-all” world
more likely to emerge?
Bengt-Arne:
Part
of intercultural communication is physical. We certainly experience
migrations, which is nothing new. But we also experience travelling,
for business and for pleasure, of a much more extensive and rapid
nature than ever before. In addition, migrations are associated with
instantaneous communication between those moving and those ‘left
behind,’ through e-mail, cell phone, SMS or what not, affecting the
next stage of migratory movements. This, then, is part of non-physical
communication which also features the sharing widely, sometimes
globally, of movies, of political campaigns, of religious sermons, of
advertisements, thus of impressions of lifestyles – on a TV screen or
on an Internet-connected computer screen.
Language
may not in itself be culture but its practical application serves as an
important, a key carrier of culture. Stories, proverbs, historical
statements, novels all embody basic elements of culture. With this or
that screen, visual language is added to verbal language messages. Thus
the very fact that more foreign cultures, and several of them, will be
present wherever, perhaps badly translated with key cultural signifiers
kept though more or less distorted, will have important repercussions
for the development of culture – everywhere. This is not at all to say
that there will be any general convergence. Some cultures, like the
Japanese one, have displayed an amazing faculty for syncretism, for
accepting several layers of different cultural influences in parallel:
Confucian, Buddhist, Christian; others stand as solid blocks against
change.
Elina:
As
the world gets more diversified, polarisation may increase;
specifically, nationalistic movements may rise. In this sense the
cultural roots are evaluated even more that they are today. However,
cultures are mixed and people may “mix and match” one aspect of some
culture, another aspect of another culture, etc. Whatever happens,
people will recognize that “one size does not fit all”; they want to
somehow belong to some groups.
José:
Latin America is culturally very mixed, perhaps the second largest
melting pot in the world, just behind North America. Latin America has
three major cultures: local indigenous, Black African, and
Mediterranean European, which were much later joined by some Asians
including Chinese and Japanese people. This trend will continue with
globalization and continued migrations.
Eleonora:
I
am focusing on Europe; however, the issue is as serious one in other
parts of the world in which there is negligible possibility of a
monolithic “one-size-fits-all” world. As too many cultures around the
world are becoming more aware of their differences in confronting other
cultures, especially western ones, unless a great effort is made also
by the western cultures themselves, we can envisage mainly conflicts at
various levels.
In
Europe, the future of cultural diversity is crucial. The outlook is
that multi-centrality will grow. At the same time, the need to move
towards inter-culturality – where each culture keeps its identity but
also respects and interacts with other cultures – is not so strongly
felt. Yet, important efforts are being made, from many sides, in hopes
of moving towards inter-culturality, at least slowly. In some
countries, efforts in this direction are at the public (governmental)
level, whereas in other countries, it is primarily NGOs that are
engaged in such efforts.
The
awareness that the issue of immigration (from different parts of the
world to Europe) is unavoidable is strong because of the change of
Europe’s demographic structure toward an aging population – that is,
fewer younger people relative to the number of older people. This is
due to low total fertility rate in all countries at different levels
and as well as in Europe as a whole. The total fertility rate is at
1.5, which is well below replacement level. Hence Europe will have an
increasing need for working age immigrants. As a consequence, the
multicultural issue and the related assimilation issue will increase in
importance, and the time to reach some kind of inter-culturality and
more so, inter-centrality will be very long.
Mohan:
That cultural diversity will be eroded as part of the process of
globalisation is beyond doubt. I prefer to call it the Global Village
Syndrome. Already we can witness that the linguistic and cultural
diversity of the world is getting reduced almost on a daily basis. The
UNESCO has collected some data on how many languages and dialects
disappear every month, every year. The same goes for local cultures.
And ditto for the traditional knowledge resources.
However, that does not mean that one size will fit all. It never has.
The process of cultural homogenisation may seem to succeed, but only up
to point. It can’t be a cake walk. That is because even within a
process of cultural homogenisation brought by the impact of
technologies, different societies and cultures will respond to it in
their own ways. So, there will be a diversity of responses to a
technology induced mono-cultural onslaught.
Secondly, beyond a point, people feel more secure in local cultural
environments. Like one’s home, these impart a sense of security and
meaning to one’s endeavours. So, even as the traditional cultures may
be swept under by the wave of globalisation, new ‘local’ cultures will
emerge as an expression of new cultural identities.
Louis:
At
the global level, cultural plurality will be maintained up to 2025 and
beyond, as years are nothing compared to centuries of differences more
exacerbated than eased in the recent past. The future of humanity is
not identity but search for “common grounds” and respect for
differences. President Obama in his Cairo speech was showing the path.
Even basic human values polarize in different behaviors through the
filters of culture. It may be that “borderless issues” such as
pollution, atomic energy risks, or terrorism will help to develop
dissuasion of individualism and ethnocentrism and contribute to a type
of global consciousness.
But
for the time being, if “The world is flat” for high tech, flatteners
for high touch are still to invent and promote. Universalism must not
be confused with trendy global brands!
5.
What long-term issues that are important to your nation or region are
not being addressed in international mainstream dialog?
Louis:
No
major issue is more important than others. We have not only to think
global but also to act global. The last months’ mobilization of nations
to avoid a world-wide systemic crisis was a good illustration and, even
in a limited sense, a demonstration of union strength. The Chinese say
that “all big human adventures start with a first step.” However, even
if addressed, some issues with differences in magnitude and urgency
among various countries or continents will never be overemphasised –
for example, poverty, social exclusion, violence, or ecology.
At
the global level, some of the issues must be framed in the delicate
context of the right to interfere and the duty of protecting
democracies and the free world.
Elina:
The challenges of raising multicultural children, especially the mixing of cultural habits and their impact to peoples’ lives.
Whether
western-style prosperity, including capitalism, is the best
socioeconomic framework for all peoples, in the present era of
increasing globalization and multicultural contact.
José:
Pervasive poverty and large disparities in wealth.
Good governance and better political systems.
Sungjoo:
The anxiety
about the dwindling birthrate. To say nothing of Japan or Korea, every
developed country is seeking ways to address this issue, but only
within its own borders and generally not in a global context.
Mohan:
The destruction and decimation of local / indigenous languages,
cultures, ways of life, and the traditional knowledge systems are not
adequately addressed by the international community except in cases
where it becomes necessary for their self-interest. Thus a number of
best and better practices are allowed to pass into oblivion under the
impact of forces generated by the process of globalisation and the
market forces.
Eleonora:
Many
issues that are important for my country ( Italy) and my region are
being addressed in the international mainstream dialogue, including
economic issues that are very important at all levels, national,
regional, or global. This is also the case for environmental issues,
even if the discussion is mainly at the academic and NGO level, as in
Italy. In contrast, environmental issues are fully discussed at the
political level in all Nordic countries, the Netherlands, as well as in
many other countries in Europe.
The
issue of migration and the need for the coexistence of different
cultures is crucial. Even if such issues are discussed at the
international level, they are not discussed in depth commensurate with
the importance that the issue has in Europe. This is also due to
Europe’s growing need for immigration. Of course this issue may lead
also to very tense situations as the incoming population increases at a
pace that renders adaptation difficult. At the same time, political
choices in many European countries are not sufficiently rapid in facing
the issue of immigration, especially the human rights aspects.
6. What types of new countercultures will arise in your part of the world or elsewhere?
Sungjoo:
A
counterculture of indifference to other people appears to be emerging
here. Our society was generally more compassionate in the past and is
less so now.
For many
generations, the people in Asia were an agrarian society, and many
hands were needed to harvest the rice and other crops. So the people
gathered in villages to help one another. We had learned how to be
compassionate toward other people, the neighbors, as if we believed
that human compassion could solve all human problems.
However,
the last 2 centuries’ industrial development and mass production
made people more and more arrogant and able to live independently
without regard and compassion for others, even their neighbors. People
seem to have lost their ability to work with their neighbors to solve
problems.
On the other
hand, among some people in Japan and other parts of Asia there is a
tranquil and steady stream of compassion. Indeed, some people are proud
of the compassion that we had in the old days and feel confident that
it will return.
Elina:
Something that we will see in the future will probably be
anti-technology culture, where people refuse to use of many
technological devices like mobile telephones.
José:
Latin
America has a relative young population, much younger than in Europe
and other advanced countries. The youth tend to be rebellious
everywhere, and this will mark some of the developments in Latin
America, while the local demographics slowly change.
Mohan:
The global cultural homogenisation will provoke the local cultural
responses, which should manifest themselves in local cultural terms.
Thus we may have more of ‘popular’ cultural manifestations at the local
level which will be able to resist the onslaught of globalisation. A
kind of cultural resistance movement in response to the homogenising
impact of globalisation.
Louis:
In the past, countercultures have been progressively tolerated,
incorporated, absorbed, and even dissolved in society. This process can
be described in a pessimistic way but conforms to a reality view as the
Canadians Joseph and Andrew Potter in The Rebel Sell: Why the Culture Can’t Be Jammed (U.S. version: Nation of Rebels: Why Counterculture Became Consumer Culture) translated in self explanatory Revolte Consommée (Consumer Revolt)
in the French edition, where they consider that countercultures are
hijacked by business and marketing and that the concept of
countercultures is itself a myth.
But
we can adopt a more positive attitude. As in Tao, Ying coexists with
Yang and “Cultural Creatives” are also pathfinders and are welcome to
help the world to improve.
The
most difficult challenge is not to think outside-the-box but to first
recognize that we think in boxes and that weird ideas are useful to
help us wake up. Ecology, sustainability and governance are major
conceptual platforms that will develop in various forms of opposition
to excesses in action and myopia in vision that mortgage our future.
Maybe long-term thinking will become a core counterculture!
7. What are your nation’s or region’s general perspectives on the future?
Elina:
A highly discussed topic is the economic depression and when it will end.
José:
Latin America will be celebrating its first 200 years of independence
during the coming two decades. Such anniversaries are many times
completely centered on history instead of the future. Thus, a major
opportunity is being missed to really think about the coming decades
and centuries by concentrating too much on the past and too little on
the far-away future.
Louis:
The
“fog of future,” akin to the “fog of war,” makes it difficult to detect
any consensus on the future or at least a Megatrend in French or
European opinions. The reality of French posture and potential is
distorted according to optimistic or pessimistic lenses for which the
media play a big part.
Europe,
France included, is confronted with conflicting imperatives: to
maintain its historical values and principles of governance and to
develop national competencies and competitiveness in collaboration in a
multipolar world.
Opinion
swings between trust and distrust in tight correlation with age,
generations, occupations, and level of education. The latest
difficulties experienced by children, parents, relatives, friends, and
colleagues impacts the opinions substantially.
Both
parents and children feel it will be difficult not only to improve but
also to maintain the standard of living known in recent periods, from
housing estates to retirement. The concept of progress was already
weakening for some years, but crises shuffled the cards and introduced
doubt on everything from politicians’ or traditional unions’
competencies to business ethics, from capitalism to the market economy,
from dividends to consumption up to modernity and civilization. The
main question is “When the crisis will end?” but above all “what next?”
Mohan:
The south Asia region’s future is bound to be impacted by a number of
factors, resulting in a future that cannot be said to be too bright. At
best, it will be a very mixed baggage. In some form or the other, it
shall continue to be one of the hotspots of the world. It is home to
nearly half of the world’s poorest people (half a billion). It has high
population growth rates. Additionally, it is prone to conflict because
of post-colonial factors. It has been the breeding ground of extremist
formations and ideologies. Pakistan has its Al Qaeda, Taliban and the
Mujahideen. The Indian government has to deal with a variety of
insurgent movements in different parts of the country. Nepal has its
Maoists. Bangladesh has its share of Muslim fundamentalists. Sri Lanka
has its separatists. Against this backdrop, it does not matter if the
Tamil Tigers, most virulent of the Tamil militant groups, has just been
defeated.
In view of
these facts, South Asia’s development will continue to be uneven. And
the unevenness will further exacerbate conflict. The challenge for the
countries of the region is to break out of this mutually reinforcing
relationship.
Other thoughts and observations
Louis:
Mindset
is certainly the name of the game for this time of deep transition.
Experts such as John Naisbitt and Carol S. Dweck emphasize the need and
give some interesting “directions for use.” But, in this perspective we
must take into account the “Fact-Value Distinction” concept to
distinguish between one possible future (what ought to be),
characterized by holistic thinking, a long term horizon, the right
brain, needed synergy between the creative energy of the youths and the
wisdom of older people, and what is: a real but slow progress coupled with reductionism and conservatism.
There
is also a generation gap to overcome: the young fear the future and are
reluctant to enter active life and the older people hesitate to leave
power positions to “enjoy” retirement. This situation does not give the
needed space for new ideas and dynamic actions. Present crisis have
raised the question of legitimacy of both means and goals, given top
priority to crisis management and short term, reinforced security
appeal, and exacerbated corporatisms.
It
is true that the pending question is the choice that will be made at
national and international levels between change type I or change type
II in the Palo Alto sense. The tendency of societies and mindsets to
homeostasis may make us fear a relapse. Weak signals of the worst kind
are the present behaviour of the finance world and management of
companies exploiting the shadow of crisis to take – under the pressure
of governments – actions postponed for years, including massive layoffs
and delocalization.
We
can feel the dramatic future potential impact of treating a crisis as a
godsend! President Sarkozy, who fought with dynamism and courage
against corporate inertia, tried in his recent historical address to
the French Parliament to mobilize and rebuild trust in the “Next”!
NEXT STEPS
We invite you to participate in our next Transnational Roundtable. Details will be posted at www.futuretakes.org . |